George Santos, Republican, wins U.S. House seat to represent New Yorks Third Congressional District. Alicia Parlapiano Redistricting will change everything. Its essential to loosening the dark grip of MAGA over the Republican Party. Abortion clearly shifted the playing field in some of these places, and so did the MAGA extremism of some of the GOP candidates. This is not a time to be defensive. Brian Kemp gained more votes compared to Trump in 2020 all across Georgia, beating Stacey Abrams by a more than seven-point margin. In two states, shifts in state power could lead to new restrictions. The Associated Press has not yet called the race. With a 5050 Senate, the vice president should be the kingmaker and cast the tie-breaking vote. For example, in the 2012 Indiana Senate election, the Republican candidate was favored by just over 7 points but the Democratic candidate won by almost 6 points. 2022 Election Forecast: Ratings, Predictions & Key Races I cant tell you how fired up the Democratic grass roots is right now. You deserve to hear our thinking. Mourdock gained national notoriety for his comment that when a woman becomes pregnant as a result of rape, it is something that God intended, and went on to lose the general election to a moderate Democrat, Joe Donnelly. , Gov. The Democrats need to win roughly twice as many of the most competitive districts as Republicans to keep control of the House. Voters in Vermont decided in favor of including abortion protections in their state constitution. The data in Table 1 indicate that a couple of the key factors influencing the outcomes of Senate contests during these years were incumbency and state presidential partisanship. Soon, 14 Revolutionary War soldiers will finally rest in peace, Floridas book-ban frenzy targets Nora Roberts, and shes not happy, How Trump made it cool for Republicans to hate their own party, Regulators seize ailing First Republic Bank, sell remains to JPMorgan. 2022 Prediction * This is FiveThirtyEights best guess as to who the nominee will be, based on an analysis of incumbency, polls, fundraising, previous experience and endorsements. First, as one would expect, the larger the predicted margin of victory, the likelier the prediction is to be correct. Among them: Pennsylvania, Michigan and Texas. Brian Kemp's strength at the top of the ticket makes the math slightly easier for a Republican upset. These ballots, which in 2020 favored Trump, were not enough to tilt the election in favor of the Republican candidate Kari Lake. . Looking for the National Picture for the 2022 Senate Forecast? Little to minimum campaigning would be required to secure a win for the following states: California, Colorado, Connecticut, Hawaii, Illinois, Maryland, New York, Oregon, Vermont and Washington. Get live estimates for Senate and House control with our real-time election forecast, which analyzes the results so far to show who is on track to win. The first polls are closing in Indiana and Kentucky. Here are the results that mattered most for abortion access. Note: Win probabilities may not add up to 100 because of third-party candidates. Given the uncertainty of the overall results of the 2022 Senate elections, I decided to conduct a seat-by-seat analysis of all 174 Senate races since 2012 to see what factors have influenced the results of these contests. GOP Rep. Mark Amodei looks safe for reelection after surviving his primary. We rated every race in play in 2022. California, Michigan, Kentucky and Montana also have abortion referendums on the ballot. Races to watch include those in the 17th, 18th, 19th and 22nd Congressional Districts, as well as the contest for governor. In North Carolinas Senate race, Representative Ted Budd, a Trump-endorsed Republican, is very likely to win, according to our estimates. Four of the 6 contests that are expected to be very competitive are currently held by Democrats (Arizona, Georgia, Nevada, and New Hampshire) while the other 2 (North Carolina and Pennsylvania) are currently held by Republicans. That was mainly because Republicans currently hold 21 of the 35 seats that are up for election in 2022. Wisconsins Senate race is leaning toward Senator Ron Johnson, his chambers most endangered Republican incumbent, according to our estimates. While it is not enough to prevent filibustering, the 4 rational Republicans (Collins, Murkowski, Romney and Sasse) shall helped by preventing unwanted filibuster abuse. Three other races, in North Carolina, Nevada, and New Hampshire, are also expected to be closely contested. If a Trump cheerleader is the chosen candidate, it is a Democrat guaranteed victory. *, Maine The final forecast lists six Toss Up races, one more than two years ago. Click here!, Click here for the National 2022 Senate Forecast, 2024 PollsPresidential ElectionSenateGOP PrimaryDem PrimaryBiden Approval Rating Tracker. We rated every race in play in 2022. The results are displayed in Table 5. , Kathy Hochul, New Yorks first female governor, beat Rep. Lee Zeldin in the states closest race in decades. This has to be the driving goal of the party this cycle. Nov. 9, 2022, Maryland and Missouri voted to legalize recreational marijuana for people 21 and older, while voters in Arkansas, North Dakota and South Dakota rejected similar measures. Despite a difficult environment, Gov. Were getting results from five states where voters are deciding whether to legalize marijuana. Nov. 8, 2022, Gov. As of now, its considered a toss Ron DeSantis winning the early vote in Miami-Dade County which voted for Hillary Clinton by +29 points just six years ago is yet another sign of growing Republican strength among Hispanic voters. We and our partners use data for Personalised ads and content, ad and content measurement, audience insights and product development. The lines below include an estimate of uncertainty. Centrist anti-fascist and anti-communist. Click here to change which version of the model you see. The Needle: Senate and House Forecast - New York Times RealClearPolitics - 2022 Election Maps - Battle for the Given the narrow size of recent Senate majorities, that underperformance is quite significant. By doing that, hes going to create a permission structure for the whole Democratic Party to follow him. Heres who won *Alaskas Senate race uses ranked-choice voting. It seems as if Democrats arent really confident that Bidens economic agenda is really a selling point going into 2024. To retain control of the House, Democrats must win 46 of these seats (after accounting for the races the parties are expected to win most easily). Nov. 8, 2022, Because of the order in which different types of ballots are counted, early returns can be misleading. Continue with Recommended Cookies. The Associated Press has not yet called the race. Note: Includes special elections held during year of election or during previous year. The 2022 Senate Forecast uses a sophisticated model that includes polling, historic trends, and fundraising to create its projections. Web2022 Senate - State Projections. Democratic Rep. Andy Kim is facing a self-funding GOP opponent and getting some outside help in the closing week of the campaign. The polls are now closed in Georgia, South Carolina, Virginia and Vermont, and in parts of Florida and New Hampshire. But so far, voters are rejecting an effort to deny abortion rights. State officials say that counting all of the votes may take several days. We and our partners share information on your use of this website to help improve your experience. Nov. 9, 2022, With more counties nearly finished counting, things keep looking better for Lt. Gov. Aside from that, the main action at this hour will be in the House, with a close race in Washingtons 8th District and at least half a dozen in California. Senate elections have become firmly yoked to their states presidential leanings. Republicans successfully defended 12 of their 16 open seats for a success rate of 75% while Democrats successfully defended 12 of their 17 open seats for a success rate of 71%. Elissa Slotkin, Democrat, wins re-election to the U.S. House to represent Michigans Seventh Congressional District. Heres the state of the closest races: In all likelihood that will be the case again in 2022 a handful of close contests will decide which party controls the upper chamber. , Josh Shapiro, a Democrat, defeated Doug Mastriano, a Trump-backed election denier, in the race for Pennsylvanias governor. Forecast Model Created & Designed by Logan Phillips. , Senator Maggie Hassan of New Hampshire was re-elected, holding on to one of Democrats most vulnerable seats in a tight contest for Senate control. We just got all the way up to 55 percent in the Wisconsin Supreme Court race. The 2022 Missouri State Senate election took place on November 8, 2022, as part of the biennial 2022 United States elections. Contact Steve at [emailprotected]. Third, he would somehow have to obscure the rightward lurch he just went through in the current legislative session the six-week abortion ban, the permitless carry, the assaults on public education and diversity. Vance defeated Rep. Tim Ryan after a competitive campaign for Ohios open Senate seat. , Emilia Sykes, Democrat, wins U.S. House seat to represent Ohios 13th Congressional District. RCP House Map Race Changes. *The vice president, Kamala Harris, breaks 50-50 ties for the Democrats. Source: Data compiled by author. For more, explore our 2024 GOP Primary polling average. The 10 Senate seats most likely to flip in 2022 | CNN Politics Maggie Astor Nov. 9, 2022, More than 210 Republicans who questioned the 2020 election have won seats in the U.S. House and Senate and in state races for governor, secretary of state and attorney general, according to results as of 12 p.m. Eastern on Wednesday. Nov. 10, 2022, More than 200,000 Georgia voters cast ballots for Brian Kemp, Republican candidate for governor, but did not vote for Herschel Walker in the Senate race. 0 seconds of 4 minutes, 49 seconds Volume 90%. Finally, there is a clear midterm effect on Senate elections, with candidates from the party occupying the White House experiencing an average penalty of 5.4 points of margin. Lazaro Gamio Here are the states: Alabama, Arkansas, Idaho, Indiana, Kansas, Kentucky, Missouri, North Dakota, Oklahoma, South Dakota and Utah. Albert Sun In Floridas closely watched governors race, Gov. . Throughout the 2022 elections, Democratic strategist Simon Rosenberg offered up a counterintuitive diagnosis: Confident GOP predictions of a red wave Maggie Astor Democratic Rep. Cindy Axne survived 2020, despite Donald Trump carrying her Des Moines-based district. In these midterms, New York is an unexpected battleground. In Colorado, a measure to decriminalize certain psychedelics is close but yet to be decided. , Brian Kemp, the Republican governor of Georgia, defeated his Democratic challenger, Stacey Abrams, for a second time. Theres no way that theyre going to be able to reposition him over the next year and a half. Polls Underestimated. The polls just closed in North Carolina, Ohio and West Virginia. Note: Seat estimates may not sum to the total number of seats because of third-party candidates. Heres what the vote count could look like this year. For the final pre-election results projection, click here. While the 2 parties split these contests almost evenly, with Democratic candidates winning 89 contests and Republican candidates winning 85, there was considerable variation from year to year. The analyst who saw through 2022s red mirage has a Ron DeSantis could seek to use a decisive 2022 victory into a springboard for a national campaign in 2024. , Frank J. Mrvan, Democrat, wins re-election to the U.S. House to represent Indianas First Congressional District. Most polls have closed in Alaska, but Alaska doesnt release results until after its last polls close at 1 a.m. Eastern. Looking for the national forecast? One big obstacle to that coalition growth project is that Florida Gov. John Fetterman. Were forecasting the race to control the Senate and House, as well as each partys chance of winning the 36 governors seats up for election. All 3 predictors had highly significant effects, with state presidential partisanship having the strongest influence. 2022 Its giving Yesli Vega, the Republican candidate, an edge over incumbent Abigail Spanberger, though this could be temporary. Nov. 14, 2022, With Senator Cortez Mastos victory in Nevada, Democrats will retain Senate control, even if Republicans win a run-off election in Georgia. We'll always be transparent about why we're making a certain rating. This legislative session has cemented him as an extremist. Jen Kiggans, Republican, wins U.S. House seat to represent Virginias Second Congressional District. Who will protect women from the courts and legislatures. The media has given Oz and Walker plenty of attention as the GOPs worst Senate candidates, but Johnson might be right Republican John Duarte has inched in front of moderate Democrat Adam Gray, despite the fact this Central Valley district went for President Joe Biden by 11 points in 2020. Louisiana the reason I will not put Louisiana in sure-shot Republican is Louisiana does have a record of voting Democrat in gubernatorial elections. GOP Sen. Ron Johnson is running for a third term making him the only Republican seeking reelection in a state President Biden won in 2020. Democrats need to go on offense on these issues. . I will still predict that Democrats will retain the seat, assuming Chris Sununu will run again for governor and a candidate with Trumps blessings runs. House Democrats' most iconoclastic member, Rep. Jared Golden, is betting his brand of centrism can overcome a challenging political environment. Lazaro Gamio Nov. 17, 2022, The gap between the candidates for Arizona governor narrowed considerably after Nov. 8 as late absentee ballots were tallied, including ones dropped off on Election Day. This finding reflects the increasing nationalization of Senate elections in the 21st century. I've collected a few races I think you should keep your eyeon. Nov. 8, 2022, The shift to the right has been dramatic among counties in Florida reporting nearly all their votes. Nov. 8, 2022, Democrat Tim Ryan leads Republican J.D. These are our estimates for which party will win control of the Senate, and the estimated number of seats won by each party. State presidential partisanship was also a powerful predictor of Senate election results during these years, reflecting the increasing nationalization of these contests. The more data we have, the more influence election day data has on the forecast. First, DeSantis has to win the primary, which doesnt look very likely at this point. Much is riding on the 2022 midterm elections: the fate of President Joe Bidens agenda, leadership in state capitals across the country and a potential 2024 comeback by former President Donald Trump. Greg Abbott brushed off a well-funded challenge from Beto ORourke, winning a third term as Texas governor. Mail voting in 2020 contributed to longer wait times for results. Nevadas Senate race is rated a tossup by the Cook Political Report. , Angie Craig, Democrat, wins re-election to the U.S. House to represent Minnesotas Second Congressional District. He's happy to chat about weather forecasting too. Nov. 8, 2022, In Kentucky, voters will decide whether to approve a constitutional amendment that would effectively ensure the implementation of a near-total abortion ban.

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